Grand Sumo makes its highly anticipated return this month with the Kyushu basho, marking the final traditional year-end tournament of the professional wrestling calendar. Scheduled to run from Sunday, Nov. 8, through Sunday, Nov. 22, the 15-day grand tournament takes place in Fukuoka on the southern Japanese island of Kyushu.
During the grueling two-week competition, hundreds of wrestlers across all divisions will step into the sacred clay ring dohyo each day, fighting tooth and nail to secure their all-important kachi-koshi, or winning record of eight victories against seven losses. For the elite competitors of the makuuchi top division, the physical demands are relentless, requiring them to contest a bout every single day of the tournament. At the conclusion of the fortnight, the top-division wrestler who finishes with the most impressive record will be crowned the latest champion, adding another prestigious chapter to the history of Japan’s national sport.
Ahead of the opening bell, a close examination of the division’s top competitors reveals who holds the best trajectory heading into Fukuoka. While the official banzuke rankings—released by the Japan Sumo Association two weeks prior to the event—are strictly calculated using win-loss records from the previous tournament, independent power rankings offer a different perspective. These evaluations weigh current form, health status, tactical versatility, and momentum to project who truly has the best chance of hoisting the Emperor’s Cup on the final Sunday.
1. Onosato
- Official rank: Yokozuna 1 east
- Record at last tournament: 12-3, yusho
The 75th yokozuna looked very much back to his dominant best during the September tournament. When an athlete of Onosato’s caliber operates at peak efficiency, his sheer physical dominance is often simply too much for the rest of the division to handle.
Throughout September, he displayed a terrifying combination of forceful forward momentum and razor-sharp precision, notably executing his trademark hatakikomi slap-down move when opponents tried to mount a counter-offensive. After a steady opening phase of just getting the job done, his confidence clearly grew, allowing him to recapture the scintillating form that marked his meteoric rise to stardom a few years ago. Although he experienced a few late wobbles as fatigue set in, he summoned a massive, defining performance against Aonishiki on the final day to seal the championship.
While lingering shoulder issues have occasionally derailed his momentum in the past, Onosato has proven that when he is healthy or even close to it, he remains the standard-bearer of the division. He commands the top spot in the power rankings as the man to beat in Kyushu.
2. Aonishiki
- Official rank: Ozeki 1 east
- Record at last tournament: 11-4, doten jun-yusho
With Onosato operating at or near full health, Aonishiki firmly establishes himself as the second most formidable force in Grand Sumo. Historically, Onosato is the only opponent whom Aonishiki consistently struggles to overcome. While the Ukrainian standout secured victories over Onosato earlier in the year when the yokozuna was battling injuries, their September showdown served as a stark reminder of how difficult the matchup becomes when both men are fully fit.
Nevertheless, Aonishiki remains one of the absolute elite wrestlers in the sport. His impressive runner-up finish in September leaves him on the cusp of history, putting him in a position where capturing the championship in November could trigger a promotion to yokozuna. It increasingly feels like a matter of when, rather than if, Aonishiki will break through to become the first European-born yokozuna. Although Onosato’s return to peak form complicates that journey, Aonishiki remains a legitimate title threat in any basho he enters.
3. Kirishima
- Official rank: Ozeki 2 east
- Record at last tournament: 8-7
Kirishima endured a surprisingly difficult tournament in September, putting forth a performance uncharacteristic of the smooth, highly confident sumo that defined his stellar year up to that point. Having entered the previous tournament as the winningest wrestler of the year with sights set squarely on a yokozuna promotion, things began to unravel for him early on.
As early losses mounted, Kirishima appeared to lose his composure and competitive edge, triggering a cascading effect of poor showings and disappointing results. Ultimately, he was fortunate to scrape together a bare-minimum winning record by the end of the fortnight. That survival was aided significantly by fellow ozeki Kotozakura, who eased off the throttle in their final-day bout after already having secured his own kachi-koshi.
Despite that uncharacteristically rocky outing, Kirishima retains the technical foundation and fight IQ that make him one of the most dangerous men in the sport. Few competitors possess his defensive instincts or his ability to seamlessly transition between heavy thrusting attacks and elite grappling. With the heavy pressure of a yokozuna promotion temporarily lifted off his shoulders, the Fukuoka environment might provide the psychological reset he needs to return to form.
4. Fujinokawa
- Official rank: Sekiwake 1 east
- Record at previous tournament: 11-4, kanto-sho
Fujinokawa has spent the entire year shattering pre-tournament expectations. Ever since his explosive debut in the top division back in January, the 21-year-old has captivated fans and opponents alike with an aggressive, fearless style that refuses to yield to more established veterans. That relentless approach allowed him to slice through the lower ranks of the makuuchi division and crash the party among the sport’s heavyweights, subsequently proving that he more than belongs in the upper maegashira and san’yaku tiers.
He arrives in Kyushu riding the momentum of an exceptional 11-win campaign at the sekiwake rank, a performance that officially places him on an ozeki promotion run. During the previous tournament, Fujinokawa demonstrated that his appeal extends far beyond his smaller stature and fan-friendly style; he is an elite competitor with an extraordinarily high ceiling. It is widely anticipated that he will capture a top-division yusho at some point in his career, and given his current trajectory, that breakthrough could arrive as early as this month.
5. Kotozakura
- Official rank: Ozeki 1 west
- Record at previous tournament: 9-6
Kotozakura has spent the last two years quietly battling through lingering knee injuries, physical setbacks that ultimately derailed his momentum in the race alongside Hoshoryu and Onosato to succeed Terunofuji as the sport’s next dominant yokozuna. While he occasionally flashes glimpses of his vintage self, he has appeared visibly limited compared to the dominant wrestler who claimed his maiden championship right here in Kyushu in 2024.
While his knee issues have visibly sapped some of his traditional pushing and driving power, Kotozakura’s tactical intelligence, sophisticated belt-grappling technique, and exceptional footwork remain world-class. Even in a physically compromised state, his baseline skill level is more than sufficient to keep him comfortably ahead of the vast majority of the division. If luck breaks in his favor over the fortnight, he remains a dark-horse candidate to inject himself into the championship race.
While competitors such as Gonoyama and Takanosho narrowly missed the cut for the top five power rankings, the stage is set for a fiercely contested November tournament. Combat Press will provide comprehensive coverage of the Kyushu basho, including a full pre-tournament preview, a viewing guide, a mid-tournament status update, and final results once the champion is crowned. Fans seeking even more in-depth daily analysis, highlights, and updates throughout the 15-day competition can also follow dedicated expert coverage through the Sumo Stomp! newsletter.
